{"id":23394,"date":"2024-11-13T11:32:28","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T14:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hmg.oc.eco.br\/?p=23394"},"modified":"2025-02-07T10:59:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T13:59:00","slug":"ndc-misaligned-with-lulas-promises-says-oc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hmg.oc.eco.br\/en\/ndc-misaligned-with-lulas-promises-says-oc\/","title":{"rendered":"NDC misaligned with Lula’s promises, says OC"},"content":{"rendered":"

PRESS RELEASE<\/b><\/p>\n

BAKU, NOVEMBER 13, 2024<\/b> \u2013 The emission reduction targets in Brazil’s NDC, submitted this Wednesday (11\/13) to the United Nations, are not only misaligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5\u00b0C objective; they are also out of sync with commitments already made by Brazil itself. According to an <\/span>analysis of the NDC published by Observat\u00f3rio do Clima<\/span><\/a>, Brazil’s set of promises and policies would bring the country\u2019s net emissions ceiling to 642 million tonnes of CO\u2082 equivalent (MtCO\u2082e), well below the government\u2019s “range” of 1,050 MtCO\u2082e to 850 MtCO\u2082e.<\/span><\/p>\n

The network also recommended that Brazil\u2019s government discard the 1,050 MtCO\u2082e target and use the more stringent limit of 850 MtCO\u2082e as a minimum ambition level to guide the development of sectoral mitigation plans to be delivered in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Observat\u00f3rio do Clima’s technical note compared the NDC with various ambition indicators and the provisions of the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake (GST), approved last year at COP28 in Dubai.<\/span><\/p>\n

It concluded that Brazil addressed few GST recommendations and that some points lack clarity in the document. In particular, the call in Article 34 of the Dubai decision to \u201cend and reverse deforestation and forest degradation\u201d and in Article 37 to increase the 2030 target\u2019s ambition were unmet. Brazil’s NDC still allows high levels of deforestation by 2035 within both \u201cranges\u201d of its target.<\/span><\/p>\n

On another critically important GST recommendation, Article 28d (the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels), Brazil has made significant progress by agreeing to discuss a timeline. As the host of the next COP, Brazil has the power to bring this discussion to the agenda in Bel\u00e9m in 2025. However, the NDC remains silent on Brazil’s plans to expand fossil fuel production\u2014which include increasing oil and gas extraction by more than a third. Brazil\u2019s NDC also emphasizes adaptation, outlining national plan strategies along with objectives and guidelines.<\/span><\/p>\n

The \u201cranges\u201d in Brazil\u2019s target do not align with indicators of what would constitute a fair contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C. According to calculations underlying Observat\u00f3rio do Clima\u2019s NDC proposal, Brazil needs to limit net emissions to 375 MtCO\u2082e by 2035 to meet that objective.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, these targets do not align with Brazil\u2019s current energy policies, President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva’s pledge to eliminate deforestation by 2030, the National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (Planaveg), and Brazil\u2019s 2021 commitment to cut\u00a0<\/span>methane emissions by 30%. If all these policies and measures were implemented, Brazil\u2019s emissions would be 642 MtCO\u2082e.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBrazil\u2019s NDC brings some progress, but it shows a cognitive dissonance. On one hand, it shows that the Ministries of Finance and Environment are working to align public policies toward decarbonization. On the other, it sets emission reduction targets that fall far short of the structural economic transformation required for a 1.5\u00b0C world,\u201d says Claudio Angelo, coordinator of international policy at OC. \u201cAs COP30 president, Brazil will need to deliver much more ambition than it has with this document.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

About Observat\u00f3rio do Clima<\/b> \u2013 Founded in 2002, it is Brazil’s leading civil society network on the climate agenda, with 119 members, including environmental NGOs, research institutes, and social movements. Its goal is to help build a decarbonized, equitable, prosperous, and sustainable Brazil in the fight against the climate crisis (oc.eco.br). Since 2013, OC has published SEEG, Brazil’s annual greenhouse gas emissions estimate (seeg.eco.br).<\/span><\/p>\n

Press Contact<\/b><\/p>\n

Solange A. Barreira \u2013 Observat\u00f3rio do Clima<\/span><\/p>\n

solange@pbcomunica.com.br<\/span><\/p>\n

+55 11 9 8108-7272<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

According to the network, commitments Brazil has already adopted would lead to emissions lower than those outlined in the target; the lower ambition limit needs to be abandoned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":23395,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[4827,3948,4851],"editoria":[],"coauthors":[4942],"class_list":["post-23394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-brazilian-ndc","tag-ndc-2","tag-paris-agreement"],"yoast_head":"\nNDC misaligned with Lula's promises, says OC - Observat\u00f3rio do Clima<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hmg.oc.eco.br\/en\/ndc-misaligned-with-lulas-promises-says-oc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NDC misaligned with Lula's promises, says OC - Observat\u00f3rio do Clima\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to the network, commitments Brazil has already adopted would lead to emissions lower than those outlined in the target; 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